The Impact of a Forthcoming US Port Strike on UK Food Security and Prices

Should we be concerned about strike action scheduled to start 1st October 2024?

A forthcoming port strike in the United States involving key ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast could have significant repercussions for the UK’s food supply. This article briefly explores the potential impacts of the same in both the US and UK, and asks whether strike disruptions could lead to food rationing in the UK.

We have had a sustained period of financial difficulty in the UK given high food and energy prices and increases to mortgage rates over the last couple of years, along with an economic downturn caused by lockdown and all the ill that did for small businesses. Now there is a looming threat of strike action from port workers across the pond that could threaten our food security as well as the availability of other products here in the UK, and lead to price inflation on essential items.

The potential port strike in the US involves about 45,000 dockworkers. The primary issues at the heart of the strike are concerns over job automation and demands for better pay. The workers are threatening to strike starting October 1, 2024, which could shut down ports that handle about half of the USA’s cargo.

The strike could create significant backlogs, equipment shortages, and increased shipping costs, potentially causing a domino effect across global supply chains. It is estimated that the strike action would cost the U.S. economy over $4 billion per day, and create 5-10 days of backlog for each day that the action continues. The economic impact could be substantial, affecting not only the US, but also international trade partners. Additionally, the port strike could have significant implications for food security, as it could halt operations at major ports, leading to delays in the import and export of food products in the US. This could result in US shortages of items like bananas, coffee, and cocoa, and with supply chain disruptions, the reduced availability of certain foods could drive up prices in the US. This would affect both everyday consumers and businesses that rely on imports.  Farmers might also face challenges in exporting their goods, leading to an oversupply in the US domestic market which could, in turn, drive down prices for key commodities, squeezing profit margins. There could be broader economic effects too as prolonged strikes could affect other sectors and impact the availability of prescription drugs and supplies needed by factories.

The above issues are not just limited to affecting the US. A port strike in America could affect food supplies and pricing in the UK. The UK imports a considerable amount of food from the US and a strike would obviously delay shipments of the same, leading to possible shortages of certain products like fruits, vegetables, and packaged foods. In turn, this would lead to increased costs for these items, as disruptions in the supply chain and impacts upon logistics and transportation costs would no doubt be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Retailers and suppliers would likely need to find alternative sources for affected products, which although possible could take time and potentially lead to temporary shortages in the UK. So, overall, whilst the direct impact of a port strike in the US might vary depending on the duration and severity of the same, it would certainly pose challenges for food security here at home.

The UK imports significant quantities of agricultural products from the US, including grains, soybeans, and corn. These are essential for both direct consumption and as feed for livestock. As well as agricultural products, many processed foods and ingredients, such as nuts, fruits, and certain packaged goods, are imported, so port disruptions could lead to shortages and increased prices for these items. The UK does also import dairy and meat products from the US, although the US does not rank among the top suppliers of meat and dairy to the UK, and thankfully the UK imports a significant portion of its beef from countries like Ireland, and Brazil, and its pork and poultry products from Europe. Nevertheless, even if the UK does not import goods directly from the US, supplies of many items may still have to pass through US ports before reaching the UK, as goods from other countries may be routed through US ports as part of a transshipment process. This process means that products are temporarily stored or transferred at US ports before being shipped to their final destination, including the UK, and any port action would obviously adversely affect this process. In the modern world, many products are part of complex global supply chains, and components or raw materials are sourced from various countries, including the US, and assembled or processed in another country before being exported to the UK. Additionally, some logistics companies use US ports as key nodes in their global distribution networks and consolidate shipments from multiple origins before redistributing them to various destinations, including the UK. Disruptions at US ports can therefore cause a chain reaction of delays and increased costs, even for goods that are not directly imported from the US. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for assessing the potential impact of a US port strike on the UK’s supply chains and food security.

There was a significant port strike in the US in 1977. This strike also involved dockworkers on the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. It caused major disruptions in the import and export of goods, including food products which affected the UK, leading to delays and increased costs for shipping goods, causing a ripple effect on global supply chains and retail food prices. The 1977 US port strike had significant economic repercussions and contributed to supply chain challenges for many countries around the world. During that time the UK had to take several measures to mitigate potential food shortages, such as diversifying import sources for essential food items to reduce dependency on US imports, retailers and wholesalers stockpiling their levels of non-perishable goods in anticipation of potential shortages, and a streamlining of logistics and distribution networks to ensure that available supplies were efficiently distributed across the country.

What people must remember about the 1977 US port strike is that whilst, like the coming looming strike, it primarily revolved around labour disputes, it did NOT coincide with any major wars in the world. Whilst the broader geopolitical context of the 1970s did include significant events that influenced global trade and economic conditions, there was not at that time an ongoing conflict in the Middle East, exacerbating the fragility of global supply chains. The current horrific Middle East conflict, whilst leaving many innocent people dead in its wake, has also caused delays and disruptions in key shipping lanes, such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, routes, both critical for global trade, leading to delays and increased shipping costs. This increased geopolitical instability has also led to higher insurance premiums and security costs for shipping companies, further straining supply chains around the world and increasing retail costs. A US port strike is only going to add to these woes exponentially, creating a compounded effect on global supply chains. You can read here how “a planned strike by US dockworkers in key US ports such as New York, Houston and Savannah will cause immediate disruption to US-UK trade and a strike lasting just two weeks could disrupt goods into 2025”. And you can read here about the economic impact of a port strike extending beyond mere delays. Do bear in mind as you read these articles that this economic effect is transferable to the UK for the reasons stated above. And of course, inflationary pressure caused by the strike will only exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis already affecting many UK households.

Potential for Food Rationing

One critical question I asked myself when looking at this looming port strike, was whether strike disruptions could lead to food rationing in the UK. I have long thought that food rationing would be a likely favourite subjugation tool of the political class – a class that is quite obviously mad and seems to be intent on harming their populations. I thought food rationing might have come in during lockdown, but thankfully it did not. However, it has been on my mind on and off over the last 4 years, given events, and I find myself asking the same questions about food rationing now as I did in 2020. In fact, I think we are in a considerably worse position that we were in 2020 and we seem to have the perfect storm upon us, taking into account the ongoing Middle East conflict, and now looming US port strike.

Of course, food rationing is typically a last resort, implemented when shortages are severe and prolonged, and many will no doubt argue that the UK has robust mechanisms to manage supply chain disruptions that any US port strike would exacerbate. But I am not so sure. Additionally, I do not believe that we have either benevolent or competent “leadership” in the UK, capable of taking correct action to shore up our food security – just look at what they are doing to farmers and farms - turning them into wind and solar factories. So, I have concerns that the interconnected nature of global trade means that a prolonged US port strikes would not only strain the systems we currently have in the UK, but would offer the perfect excuse for food rationing thereby creating more fear and misery for UK citizens. Yes, I know it is a black outlook, but I am simply asking the question, what if our leadership just sits back and “lets” supply chains fall apart, taking no measures to mitigate global supply chain disruption to the UK?

We know from what I have said above that prolonged US port strike action would have a significant impact on the UK, leading to higher prices and potential shortages of certain products. But what if this is a happy chance desired outcome that the political class will seize upon to cause further misery? We know they never let a good crisis go to waste, after all. I appreciate that some people reading this will roll their eyes at my commentary and ask, “just what would be the point of this kind of ridiculous negligence”, but my answer to any question along those lines is going to be the same answer I give about everything currently rolling down the hill at us like at ton of shit at speed. The point would be that these sorts of things keep people miserable, but more importantly, keep people in fear. And keeping people miserable and in fear makes them easier to control. Misery and fear leads to compliance, because people feel that obeying authority is the safest option for them in times of crises. Using such tactics to control people is, of course, completely unethical and leads to significant psychological harm. Authoritarian regimes have always used these tactics, particularly fear, as a tool to maintain control of their populations, But before anyone tries to argue that the UK government is not in this league and would not engage in such practises, please think again. We only have to look at the notorious SPI-B (a sub-group of SAGE), to see how applied psychology was used against the British public during lockdown, for nefarious reasons - namely to ensure compliance to draconian, non sensical rules, and then the medical experiment of the century.

Who knows what nefarious and dystopian plans food shortages and incredibly high prices could bring. We could even be looking at having to sign up digitally with all the ID requirements that would entail, to get any sort of help. The possibilities are endless, I am sure. But given that I am not a sociopathic narcissist, I am also sure that I cannot come up with all the ways this could be used to control and subjugate people.

At the very least please consider that it seems highly suspicious that the US government is not engaging in any meaningful way about the looming port strikes, with officials from Biden’s administration just “closely monitoring” labour talks NOT trying to broker a deal to avert a walk out. This is incredibly strange given that there is a US election in around 4 weeks. But maybe that’s the point. Who knows?

Given the vulnerability of global supply chains that a US port strike could exacerbate and the importance of everyone entering into some of their own resilience planning, my advice is that people stock up a little now, to avert any hardship that may come from what appears to be a major looming disaster in the form of US port strike action. Better to be prepared and have a little more than you need now, than be left at the whim of the uncaring political class to solve any arising problems.